Analisis Risiko Gempabumi di Sumatera dengan Cauchy Cluster Process

Sumatra is one of the prone areas in Indonesia to earthquakes. This condition due its geography which traversed by active faults, subduction zones, and volcanoes. In this study, distribution earthquakes occurrences modeled considering effects spatial trends volcanoes also cluster caused mainshock aftershock activities using inhomogeneous Cauchy process. trend modeling, there are indications that multicollinearity issue characterized a high correlation among geographical factors, so study considers ridge regularization overcome problem. The results data exploration show not homogeneous form clusters geological factors such as presence volcanoes, faults. Earthquake intensity modeling with produces an AIC value -2280648 smaller than model without regularization. resulted estimated number 63 mainshocks standard deviation aftershocks around 17.685 km. closer location fault, risk earthquake occurring at increases 1.6972 times. zone, 1,25899 times, volcano, 1.55910